Why India slowly proceeding towards the economic slowdown? How does it impacts the common Falk's like you and me?
Indian economy in past several decades considered as engine of world economic growth vehicle. India emerged as world leader in the financial growth arena touching average 7.5% GDP growth but economic slowdown has been observed in this year and specially in current quarter where recorded GDP growth is meager 5%.
Is it really a recession?
Its definitely slow down but considering it as economic recession is too early. Economic world is full of complexities, vulnerabilities and dynamism where things changes on daily basis because of integration of world economies. Currently all over the world vulnerabilities are surrounding and all most all economies recording dip in growth rates including the Chinese. Thus it could be considered as 'GLOBAL SLOWDOWN'.
If India was world leader why slowdown now?
There are various reasons but important ones are-
Is it really a recession?
Its definitely slow down but considering it as economic recession is too early. Economic world is full of complexities, vulnerabilities and dynamism where things changes on daily basis because of integration of world economies. Currently all over the world vulnerabilities are surrounding and all most all economies recording dip in growth rates including the Chinese. Thus it could be considered as 'GLOBAL SLOWDOWN'.
If India was world leader why slowdown now?
There are various reasons but important ones are-
- Geopolitical improvements- Trade war between US and China pushed companies to reduce the production level as sanctions enhanced the cost of their products thus became uncompetitive and inventory started piling up. Further, investors deterred by global uncertainties thus moving towards global slowdown.
- Rightist parties- across the world rightist parties are on rise which lead to regional policies like 'America first', 'make in india' etc. thus imposing tariff to give edge to their own companies.
- Banking crisis- Indian banks are already in huge NPA thus prudential policies are adhered by banks in issuing new credit.
- Dipping consumption- Indian economy is mostly consumptions dependent and in last several quarters consumption has decreased. Even the other two factors investment and saving too remained on lower side.
- Rural distress- Agrarian distress and budget cut in MNREGA dipped the rural earning. Thus large section of society's purchasing power also decreased.
- Tax rate announced in budget 2019-20 swiped over $15000 withdrawal from Indian stock market.
- Other reasons like demonetization, hasty implementation of GST, China's dumping, credit crisis of NBFCs etc.
- As production has reduced companies will fire labour from jobs like Maruti did recently from Gurugram plant.
- India can get pushed into cycle of economic slow down further enhance the current problem.
- Purchasing power will further reduce.
- Reduced Income of companies will affect there investment plans
- Uncertainty in market makes mandatory for investment to hold money in bonds and not shares thus increasing cost of production.
- Cheap products demand may increase thus fiscal deficit may increase.

Comments
Post a Comment